Thanksgiving is here and that means a virtual smorgasbord of football action. The weekend begins with a tripleheader on the big day itself, and the fun doesn’t stop until Monday. In this space, it’s been a tough season but, on the bright side, four of the last five weeks have ended in the green as we scratch and claw our way toward respectability.

There is still a long way to go but, before we get to the Week 13 picks, let’s take stock of the progress.

• Week 12: 3-2
• 2024 Season: 24-35-1

Come get these winners.

Chicago Bears (+10) over Detroit Lions — ESPN Bet

I’m tired of fading the Lions. It hasn’t gone well, and I hate it. But this is another spot where I think I have to. Detroit is banged-up and, while the Lions should win this game at home, Chicago is a step above the doormats that should be catching double-digits in this spot. Thoughts and prayers.

Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) over Los Angeles Chargers — FanDuel

In the interest of full disclosure, I’m a Falcons fan. I don’t want to bet on the Falcons. I actively try not to. But this is a spot I really like. Atlanta is coming off a bye, while Los Angeles played a high-impact game on Monday on the west coast. I would already have the Falcons as a tiny favorite before accounting for the situation, so give me the candy on the home underdog.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers — FanDuel

This is Cincinnati’s last stand. At 4-7, they have zero margin for error. That’s not why I’m taking them, but the Bengals should be able to move the ball and score, even against Pittsburgh’s defense. The market is still a touch higher on the Steelers than I am, and grabbing this below a field goal is advantageous.

Carolina Panthers (+6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers — BetMGM, Bet365

Make no mistake, Carolina isn’t very good, but they are undervalued at this number. Bryce Young looks like an NFL quarterback and, while the Panthers are going to give up some points here, they can go shot-for-shot with the Bucs at home.

Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 46.5 points — Widely Available

NFC South overs have crushed all season. I’m not getting off the train just yet and, as noted earlier, I think this might even be a spot when the Over is correlated to the underdog to some degree. Tampa Bay’s defense should pave the way for some fireworks.